Well, today is the day. Does your stomach hurt? Because mine sure as hell does. The 2024 election has been historic, chaotic, and unprecedented. This article should be a guide to help you navigate election day, and know what to expect in the days to come. As further reading, I suggest you read my article on Trump’s political machine as well, but before I get into your guide for election day, let’s take a look at some of the memorable moments of this election cycle.

The 2024 Cycle

Democrats 

• While Biden quite obviously won the Democratic primary, the uncommitted campaign stole the show, demonstrating the intense dissatisfaction of the Democratic base over the Biden administration being an accomplice to the genocide in Gaza. 
• When Biden and Trump met on the debate stage, Biden could no longer hide his cognitive decline, and his terrible performance decimated his polling averages and sent the Democratic establishment into crisis mode. 
• After a staunch and stubborn defense against a bitter internal struggle to leverage Biden out of the race, in an anti-climactic statement, Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed VP Harris.
•  Prominent Democrats quickly followed suit, and Kamala became the new Democratic candidate without resistance from any of the ambitious talent within the party. 
• Harris built upon early momentum with different successful campaigns such as ‘brat’ and ‘weird’, as well as announcing the popular Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, to be her running mate. She continued momentum through the DNC, but the Israel-Palestine conflict underscored much of the coverage. 
• Harris’s momentum culminated in a successful debate against Trump where she was able to coax unpopular soundbites and tirades out of the former President.
•  However, after the fallout of the debate, Harris’s momentum began to slow down, and her support began to plateau. Much of her base lost some of their enthusiasm when she abandoned a more progressive campaign, opting for endorsements from Republicans and drifting to the center on policy. Additionally, Walz and Vance had an uneventful debate. 
• However, despite splintering within her base and very credible concerns about the success of her campaign strategy, Harris gained late momentum due to unforced errors from Trump late in the cycle.

Republicans 

• Leading up to the race, Trump faced a couple of half-hearted challenges in the Republican primary. He quickly dispatched of Ron DeSantis, Vivek never had a chance, and he eventually wore down a stubborn Nikki Haley. 
• He then was able to shake off a conviction and successfully delay the sentencing until after the election. 
• Trump benefited greatly from Biden’s national implosion during their debate. However, in the long run, he would’ve most likely had an easier road to being the next President if Biden had stayed in the race. 
• Trump then generated even more popularity and momentum when he was hit by a bullet but narrowly escaped with his life after an assassination attempt.
•  After the failed assassination attempt, when Biden had not yet dropped out, Trump felt that his second term was nearly a given, so he played to his base and announced J.D. Vance was his pick for VP and also opted not to play the ‘unity’ card by running a very partisan RNC.
•  The Trump campaign then had to quickly scramble to recalibrate what was an incredibly well-thought-out and organized campaign against Biden into a campaign against Harris. 
• The Trump campaign was able to regain some momentum when the controversial third-party candidate, RFK Jr., dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. 
• However, this momentum was countered by his poor performance in the only debate between Trump and Harris. 
• Nevertheless, after a second assassination attempt, a solid performance from J.D. Vance in the VP debate, his visit to McDonald’s, a successful media blitz, endorsements from Joe Rogan and Elon Musk, and Harris’s loss of momentum, Trump appeared to be in good shape going into election day. 
• But, this momentum then stagnated once again when his MSG rally went viral for racist and inflammatory remarks, John Kelly (his former Chief of Staff) released a scathing allegation of Trump calling him a fascist, and a couple of poor moments during campaign speeches slowed down his momentum.

Election Day

Now that we’re all on the same page, let’s talk about election day. Polling averages indicate that the race is incredibly close, being essentially a coin flip in just about all the swing states. Despite this, all Harris really needs to do is win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (easier said than done). So, the essential question is: will the blue wall hold? Well, if you take the polls at face value, Pennsylvania will narrowly go to Trump. However, you should never take the polls at face value. Why not? Well, for starters, they were very wrong in 2016 and 2020. Additionally, the Trump campaign completely maxed out the support they could get from their base a while ago, so Trump has been going after low-propensity voters. These prospective voters are hard to nail down, hard to track, and rarely vote. With the election hinging on such thin margins, if polls are overplaying one candidate’s hand by just 2%, that could be the difference between Trump or Harris sweeping all seven swing states (that 2% will become even more important later in the article).

Now, you may be sitting there thinking: “well Trump always outperforms polls, so if they’re close now, then Trump will win a blowout.” To that I would respond: “not really.” Polls were actually pretty accurate in 2022, and I think it may be naive to believe they haven’t corrected their mistakes from 2020. Generally speaking, the principal reason why polls were so off in 2020 was because of COVID. Liberals were more likely to be at home, i.e., more likely to answer their phone for a poll. While it is of course very easy to ‘Monday morning quarterback’ polling inaccuracies a couple years after an election, I don’t think any large independent variables exist in this cycle that would be comparable with COVID’s impact on polling results in 2020. Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if polls are actually quite accurate this election. This means that the race is tight, and neither candidate is staring down the barrel of a blowout.

Early voting doesn’t give us any real indications of who’s winning either. Both sides can cherry-pick stats that they should be excited about. Republicans have noticed that the early vote amongst registered Republicans is up, and Democrats have noticed that women are voting in high numbers (this is good news for Harris given that she polls very well with women). Therefore, the early vote really indicates nothing, especially considering that most of it is guesswork. Mail-in ballots are an interesting topic here as well. Rulings in swing states have been unfavorable to Democrats. Multiple swing state courts have ruled that mail-in ballots sent before or on election day, but received after election day, will not be counted. While this may seem like we just lost thousands of blue votes in swing states, the Republicans also have lost more votes than they bargained for. This is because U.S. military personnel across the world have reported that their ballots will not reach swing states before election day, also ruling their ballots out. So while mail-in ballots heavily favor Democrats, military ballots heavily favor Republicans, meaning that the hemorrhaging of blue votes from those rulings could be less than previously anticipated (as a quick side note: I am -obviously- not a legal expert, but I highly doubt Republicans can thread the needle by getting courts to accept late military ballots but not other ballots).

Interestingly, there are other places we can look to get a sense of what the results may be. Migration patterns are an interesting lens to view this election through, especially considering that they explain some recent voting trends. Tracking the political affiliations of people moving to different states provides good insight into these trends. For instance, out of all the people moving to Florida, the result is somewhere around R+20. This explains why Florida has gone from a swing state to a deep red state. Additionally, an overwhelming number of red voters have moved to Texas, which unfortunately puts a damper on any Blexas excitement for this election cycle in my beloved home state (maybe the real Blexas was the friends we made along the way -RIP Beto O’Rourke-). In the long run, the trend is more indicative of a looming disadvantage for Republicans. Though the electoral college has been extremely skewed to favor Republicans in the past, with more and more Republicans moving from ‘purple’ states to deep red states like Texas and Florida, those are votes that are no longer in play in swing states. Additionally, good news for Democrats is that the migration patterns have favored Democrats in Rust Belt states and Georgia. Due to the more favorable cost of living and homes, many young professionals with liberal tendencies have moved to these states. So, while through migration, Republicans have consolidated gains in Texas and Florida, migration patterns actually indicate a potential advantage for Democrats with new voters moving to swing states while Republican voters flee swing states.

However, the good news for Democrats does not stop there. While most polls have failed to be accurate in the Trump era, some polls have. Therefore, they can be used as a reference to predict national voting trends. One example is the Selzer poll of Iowa. This poll has been dead accurate since 2008. Before the results were released, most analysts considered a result of R+1-5 a good result for Harris, R+5-9 acceptable, and R+10+ to be catastrophic. However, the Selzer poll was a shocking D+3. A result like this is unheard of for what is considered to be the very red state of Iowa. Will Iowa actually turn blue? I really doubt it. However, such a positive result from a highly rated pollster bodes well for Harris’s chances in the rest of the Rust Belt. Additionally, there have been widespread allegations of “poll herding” meaning that, out of fear of being wrong again, national polls have potentially been tacking on an additional 2% to Trump’s results (I told you that 2% would come in handy). If true, and the polls have been accurate, then the anticipated Trump overperformance will not happen. This would be excellent news for Harris, as it would not only indicate an edge for her in the Rust Belt but also that all the other swing states are up for grabs.

Another piece of good news for Harris is the Washington primaries. They are held before the election and have been a good indicator for national results over the past decade. Though Washington is a blue state, if you take the primary results and subtract a few points from the Democrats, you’ll have an indicator of the national voting average. This primary indicated that there wouldn’t be a ‘red wave’ in 2022 and that Biden would edge out a close election in 2020, so should most likely be pretty accurate now. The 2024 primaries indicate a strong Democratic advantage, and hopefully, this math, like 2022, translates nationally. Overall, these are some very positive trends for Harris leading into election day.

Path to Victory

Pennsylvania.

Basically, if Harris doesn’t win Pennsylvania, she has to run the board to make up for the loss. This means she would have to hold on to Wisconsin and Michigan, but also take Georgia or North Carolina and Nevada or Arizona. In my opinion, Harris running the board in those states is unlikely. So essentially, whoever takes Pennsylvania most likely takes the whole enchilada. Harris can lose Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, but as long as she holds the Rust Belt, she takes the election 270-268. Additionally, it would be easier for Republicans to cast doubt on, and potentially reject Harris votes in the Sun Belt or Georgia/North Carolina than it would be to do so in the Rust Belt. Overall, the election will be decided in Pennsylvania.

Prediction

Despite claims from both sides of a looming landslide in their favor, the reality is that this will be a tight one. Even if one candidate takes more than anticipated in the electoral college, they will have most likely done so by razor-thin margins in the swing states themselves.

Though I have several criticisms of the Harris campaign – they were incredibly stupid to buy into MAGA narratives (read this article to understand how important that is), they ran away from good progressive policy, and their record on Gaza and treatment of their Arab base was unacceptable – I do believe that Harris will win approximately 270/286 – 268/252 (depending on Georgia). Call me Hillary Clinton circa 2016 all you want, but I believe, despite its cracks, that the blue wall will hold. Regardless, I don’t believe we will truly know the winner until at least a week after the election, probably longer.

What to Expect

In a word: chaos.

Over the past four years, Republicans have been laying the framework to be able to challenge the election, be able to litigate results into oblivion, and have been sowing doubt about the integrity of our elections into the minds of voters. We will see the fruits of their labor on election day and the weeks that follow. Every ballot, every result, and every recount will be highlighted and challenged. We won’t know the results on election day, and it will most likely be a while until we have a good sense of who is going to win. The concerning aspect of this is that the longer it takes the count votes, the more doubt there will be about the results. Even if Harris does win, the Republicans will cry foul on an even higher level than 2020 (I really hope we get a Giuliani photo op outside the ‘four seasons’ again).

The defeatist side of me sees the conservative supermajority in the Supreme Court, election deniers in local government positions, and state legislatures aching for a red victory, and thinks: “uh oh, we’re fucked.” That side of me believes that even if Harris wins, the Republicans will challenge the results enough that the vote comes down to the states, and Trump will be President #47. However, believe it or not, I also have a hopeful side, and that side believes that Harris can win. My hopeful side sees a future where Harris can win by a margin strong enough that despite the inevitable court cases, recounts, and doubt, she will still prevail. No matter who wins, there will be chaos, there will be demonstrations, and there will be outrage. Do I buy into the whole looming civil war narrative? No. This is because Americans are unfailingly lazy. I honestly think that Americans are too passive to mount a tangible armed uprising that’s worth a damn (unless you offer them free Chili’s or something comparable). So, while there certainly could be some extremists who use their way too easily accessible guns to cause a lot of harm, I don’t think that there will be a rematch of Gettysburg anytime soon.

Final Thoughts

From a more existential standpoint, this election is very important (hot take, I know). I don’t know how much more MAGA politics this country can take. I would explain why, but to be honest, I’m sick of typing, and I’d much rather drink until I puke while I watch old dudes in suits play with oversized election iPads on national TV. However, it is your lucky day, because it just so happens that I have already explained all of this in a previous article. So if you want to know more about why, then I strongly urge you to click here. If you’re wondering why that is the third time I’ve promoted my own article here, then I strongly urge you to shut up. And if you don’t want to read it, then I hope you learned something reading this, and I hope you have a happy election day.